Ian Bremmer on 2024's Top Risks: America vs. Itself, Middle East Tinderbox, Ukraine Partitioned, and Ungoverned AI

Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, returns to The Burn Bag for a chat with A'ndre on his Top Risks 2024 report -- Eurasia Group's annual forecast of the top geopolitical risks most likely to play out over the coming year. A'ndre and Ian started the conversation with the #1 Risk, the "United States vs. Itself," as Ian outlines why the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election will test American democracy to a point unseen since the Civil War. The Middle East Tinderbox, in the wake of the Israel-Gaza War, defines Risk #2 as Ian explains why the risk of a regional war breaking out is so high given the many actors involved in the conflict. The two then discuss why Ukraine is likely to be de facto partitioned, and why Ukraine can 'lose' the war but Russia can't 'win'. Ian talks at length about the risks around 'ungoverned AI', discussing why governments are unable to keep up with rapid developments in artificial intelligence. A'ndre and Ian discuss other risks during the episode, such as the Axis of Rogues (Russian, Iranian, and North Korean alignment) and some Red Herrings, including why the U.S.-China relationship isn't a top risk this year.